Rule of LaPlace
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- Parent Category: Persönliches Wachstum
- Category: Persönliches Wachstum
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Laplace rule or the rule of succession in probability theory is a formula that was made known to in the eighteenth century by Laplace in the development of treating the sunrise problem. The formula is still in use up to date especially in the estimation of fundamental probabilities when they are few observations, or for the events that have not been experiential to happen at all in sample data.
It state that, if we replicate an experiment that we are aware that can end in a achievement or failure, n times self-sufficiently, and get s successes, then what is the probability that the next replication will also be a success?. If X1………. Xn+1 are temporarily independent arbitrary variables that each can assume the value 0 or 1, then, if nothing else is known about the
P(Xn+1=1|X1 +………+Xn=s) = s+1/n+2
Since our previous knowledge was we are to look at an experiment for which failure and success are possible, our estimation is as we had observed one failure and one success before starting the experiments. We made n+2 observations with s+1 successes. However, if we had no prior knowledge of success and failure possibility, then we would have had to assign
P’(Xn+1=1|X1……….+Xn=s)= s/n.
The more observations we make the more P and P’ become similar.
Primers for management trainees are extremely vital because they are the ones which develop the management trainees to managers. However, given a good model of a primer for management trainees and use Laplace rule can result into a perfect primer. This can be achieved by making many observations as practicable, depending of the reliability of previous knowledge, cost of observation, time and resources available, and accuracy required. The total weight of the prior knowledge compared to actual observations of other primers gives the best primer for management trainees. It is always good not to assume that probability of any observation because that assumption do not exist. therefore, Laplace rue is extremely vita in decision making.
